Silver Breaks, Sustained Uptrend - Signals are Bullish

Silver is starting the week in a strong position, breaking out of Fridays inside day and rallying above both the downtrend line and 20-Day MA (purple). It is on track to close strong, near the highs of the day, above the lines, and above last week’s high of 23.05. Today’s high of 23.22 stalled right at resistance marked by a second downtrend line. This one starts from the May 2023 peak. If today closes above last week’s high today, a bullish reversal on the weekly chart is confirmed.

Could be Start of Sustained Rally in Silver

This could be the start of a sustained rally in silver, but it needs to continue to show signs of strength. That will next happen on a daily close above the downtrend line around Monday’s high. Greater significance will be attributed to a daily close above the most recent swing high at 23.53 as it is part of the downtrend price structure of lower swing highs.

Once there is a daily close above that price level a clearer confirmation for a bullish reversal from the correction will be indicated. The 50-Day MA (orange) is nearby that swing high at 23.59. Therefore, a daily close above the 50-Day line is going to provide a stronger signal than a close below it. Following the 23.53 swing high is the next higher swing high (C) target at 24.61.

Weekly Bullish Breakout TriggersIn his Silver Forecast Video for January 30, 2024, Bruce Powers examines the bullish momentum that silver is exhibiting at the start of the week. Silver's breakout above Friday's inside day, the downtrend line, and the 20-Day MA (purple) indicates a strong position. If today's close remains above last week's high of 23.05, it would confirm a bullish reversal on the weekly chart.

This rally could potentially signal the beginning of a sustained recovery in silver, but it needs to maintain its strength. The next key level to watch is a daily close above the downtrend line around Monday's high. Even more significant would be a daily close above the most recent swing high at 23.53, which is part of the downtrend price structure.

Once there is a daily close above 23.53, it would provide a clearer confirmation of a bullish reversal from the correction. The 50-Day MA (orange) is nearby that swing high at 23.59, so a daily close above this line would carry more weight than a close below it. The next higher swing high (C) target is 24.61.

On the weekly chart, Monday's rally triggered a bullish breakout, supported by last week's bullish hammer candlestick pattern. The high price last week was 23.025, and a daily close below this level would be a short-term sign of weakness, while a close above would support a continued rise.

If the 24.60 swing high is exceeded, the odds favor a continuation higher to test recent highs in a range from around 25.41 to 26.22. While silver has faced resistance in this zone in five prior rallies since November 2021, this time could be different given the recent swing low at 21.93 being higher than the previous swing low from early October.

Monday’s rally triggered a bullish breakout on silver’s weekly chart as last week’s candlestick pattern was a bullish hammer. This provides an additional clue supportive of the bullish thesis. The high price last week was 23.025. It can be watched to help gauge strength during a pullback. A daily close below it is a short-term sign of weakness, while a close above is supportive of a continuation higher.

Once 24.60 is Exceeded, Silver is Cleared for Takeoff

If the 24.60 swing high is exceeded, the odds favor a continuation higher to test recent highs in a range from around 25.41 to 26.22. There have been at least five prior rallies in silver since November 2021 where silver encountered resistance in that price zone that led to a bearish correction. This time may be different given. Once simple clue is that the recent swing low at 21.93 was higher than the previous swing low from early-October.