Will a Trump victory in the 2024 U.S. election impact silver prices? Here's today's strategy analysis.
**Silver Market Update:**
Spot silver was trading at $32.65, reflecting an increase of nearly 0.50% for the day, as the metal continued to fluctuate between $32 and $33. The MCX December silver contract was at Rs 94,682, up 0.42%.
**US Dollar and Yields:**
The US Dollar Index was recorded at 103.57, down around 0.30% for the day. Meanwhile, US yields rose in response to the ISM services report. Ten-year US yields climbed to 4.358%, up by nearly 1.70%, while two-year yields reached 4.23%, a gain of approximately 1.50%.
**Data Summary:**
The US ISM Services Index rose to 56 (from a previous 54.90), surpassing the forecast of 53.80, with employment in services moving into expansion. The ISM Prices Paid Index was 58.10, also exceeding estimates of 58.
**Upcoming Data and Events:**
Key US data releases include unit labor costs and weekly jobless claims. The FOMC will announce its monetary policy decision on November 7, with an anticipated rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%. The Bank of England is also expected to lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%.
**Silver ETF Holdings:**
Global silver ETF holdings as of November 4 stood at 742.761 Moz, down slightly from 744.01 Moz on November 1.
**Silver Price Outlook:**
Silver prices may find support amid uncertainty over the US election results. A decisive outcome could lead to profit-taking, potentially weighing on the metal. If Trump wins, renewed Sino-US trade tensions could benefit gold, potentially driving silver upward. However, a Trump victory may also push up the Dollar Index and US yields, putting initial pressure on silver. In contrast, a win for Harris might favor silver over gold in the short term, as her economic policies are expected to be less inflationary, promoting sustainable growth with moderated borrowing.
Expect significant volatility following the election. Key support for silver stands at $32 (Rs 92,800) and $30 (Rs 87,000), with resistance levels at $33.25 (Rs 96,400) and $35 (Rs 101,000).
Spot silver was trading at $32.65, reflecting an increase of nearly 0.50% for the day, as the metal continued to fluctuate between $32 and $33. The MCX December silver contract was at Rs 94,682, up 0.42%.
**US Dollar and Yields:**
The US Dollar Index was recorded at 103.57, down around 0.30% for the day. Meanwhile, US yields rose in response to the ISM services report. Ten-year US yields climbed to 4.358%, up by nearly 1.70%, while two-year yields reached 4.23%, a gain of approximately 1.50%.
**Data Summary:**
The US ISM Services Index rose to 56 (from a previous 54.90), surpassing the forecast of 53.80, with employment in services moving into expansion. The ISM Prices Paid Index was 58.10, also exceeding estimates of 58.
**Upcoming Data and Events:**
Key US data releases include unit labor costs and weekly jobless claims. The FOMC will announce its monetary policy decision on November 7, with an anticipated rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%. The Bank of England is also expected to lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%.
**Silver ETF Holdings:**
Global silver ETF holdings as of November 4 stood at 742.761 Moz, down slightly from 744.01 Moz on November 1.
**Silver Price Outlook:**
Silver prices may find support amid uncertainty over the US election results. A decisive outcome could lead to profit-taking, potentially weighing on the metal. If Trump wins, renewed Sino-US trade tensions could benefit gold, potentially driving silver upward. However, a Trump victory may also push up the Dollar Index and US yields, putting initial pressure on silver. In contrast, a win for Harris might favor silver over gold in the short term, as her economic policies are expected to be less inflationary, promoting sustainable growth with moderated borrowing.
Expect significant volatility following the election. Key support for silver stands at $32 (Rs 92,800) and $30 (Rs 87,000), with resistance levels at $33.25 (Rs 96,400) and $35 (Rs 101,000).